Senior Economist – Futures Analysis

We recognise the challenges that people with (multiple) protected characteristics may experience on the job market and in their career progression. We are fully committed to being an inclusive employer and ensuring equal opportunities. We are keen to make our workforce as diverse as possible, and we hope to attract applications from underrepresented groups, including ethnic minorities, people with a disability, and people with gender diverse identities.

The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) is the department for economic growth. We support businesses to invest, grow and export, creating jobs and opportunities across the country. We operate in an increasingly dynamic international environment, with a range of forces rapidly reshaping the global economy. For the UK to navigate this environment successfully, we need to understand how the world is changing. 

To help guide Department for International Trade’s (DIT’s) strategic thinking, the Global Futures Group – a ‘futures think-tank’ – sits at the heart of DBT within the Ministerial Strategy Directorate. Our role is to advance the most pressing long-term issues facing the department with impactful evidence and policy advice. Through this, we aim to ensure that DBT’s strategy is robust, resilient and futureproofed so as to support UK prosperity. 

Your role will be as a senior economist in the Futures Analysis team, which is responsible for creating the quantitative analysis around the future of the global economy that underpin DBT’s strategic decisions. You will lead projects that will provide analytical insights around how long-term economic, societal, technological, and environmental trends will shape the UK’s economic prospects over the next 30 years. You will be involved in a diverse range of issues, from long-term forecasting of global GDP growth to deep dives on specific issues such as the future of carbon pricing – all linked by a common theme of delivering on the Department’s priorities. A recent example of the team’s published work is DBT’s Global Trade Outlook (available on GOV.UK) 

We are looking for analysts with experience working as a professional economist. With close links to both DBT’s Strategy and Analysis functions, the technical depth of our work varies, from complex macro modelling and time series econometrics to data visualisation. That is allied with an understanding of the big picture and how such approaches can be used to tackle strategic questions. As such, we are open to a diverse set of analytical skills that will complement the rest of the team – which boasts a mix of experience from around the Civil Service as well as other organisations such as the Bank of England, BP, Deloitte and Bloomberg.  

This is a leadership role. You will have line management responsibility for one Senior Executive Officer (SEO) and be expected to provide thought leadership, both in developing the Directorate’s work agenda and leading multidisciplinary teams to deliver on that agenda.  As such we are looking for a kind, positive individual who can contribute to a an inclusive team spirit. 

• Quantitative Analysis – You will use your knowledge of quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques (such as trend forecasting, horizon scanning, scenario analysis and risk assessment) and experience gathering insights from multiple data sources to shed light on the complex policy issues and strategic choices facing DIT in the decades ahead.    

• Project management and delivery – You will lead and contribute to a range of projects, working closely with other strategy and policy teams across the department to deliver insightful and policy-relevant analysis on burning policy questions, sometimes at pace.  You will be comfortable delivering at pace and to a high quality.  

• Communicating with impact – You will be adept at converting complex analysis into easily digestible content that can influence decision-making at the highest levels.  You will be an articulate writer with the ability to produce eye-catching graphs and facts.    

• Leadership and people management – Working closely with the Head of Futures Analysis, you will provide thought leadership in identifying research themes and growing the bounds of the team’s expertise to help to support DBT’s policy priorities. You will oversee 1 SEO economist, while coaching the wider team in developing their analytical skills. 

Essential Criteria 

• Minimum 2:1 undergraduate degree in economics (or degree with significant economics component) 
• Experience of using large datasets and multiple data sources to draw insightful analytical conclusions 
• Knowledge of international economics and/or the UK economy 

Desirable Criteria  

• Masters’ degree in economics  
• Time series analysis and forecasting experience. 
• Experience using forward-looking analysis to influence strategic decisions in a policy or corporate setting  
• Experience in economic policy making, allowing you to apply your own knowledge and curiosity to solve complex policy problems;  
• Leadership experience of managing individuals and projects 

Personal Attributes & Skills 

We are looking for a self-starter and innovative thinker, with a ‘big picture’ approach to analysis and the ability to engage with and bring evidence to bear on a range of strategic questions.  

You will be a pragmatic analysist, comfortable using a range of quantitative techniques to produce high-quality outputs at pace, while acknowledging the limits of your own analysis and exercising good judgement to draw out insights under uncertainty.  

You will be effective in managing different workstreams and be able to prioritise and effectively manage across multiple projects simultaneously. You will also be comfortable working in a fast-paced policy-making environment and be able to flexibly adjust your work priorities in the face of emerging demands. 

 You will be an empathetic leader, able to build relationships, inspire and bring people along with you, and providing leadership to a diverse team.

We’ll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Making Effective Decisions
• Developing Self and Others

We’ll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• Economics

• Learning and development tailored to your role
• An environment with flexible working options
• A culture encouraging inclusion and diversity
• A Civil Service pension with an average employer contribution of 27%

Please refer to the attached candidate pack for further information on our benefits.

Job contact :

• Name : Mathew Sim
• Email : Mathew.Sim@businessandtrade.gov.uk

Recruitment team

• Email : dbtrecruitment.grs@cabinetoffice.gov.uk